Sunday, December 18, 2022

[NJFAC] The missing workers who are never coming back


The missing workers who are never coming back

Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Rahul Mukherjee/Axios
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell struck a particularly somber note at his press conference earlier this week when he mentioned that one reason the labor market is so tight right now is that many workers died from COVID-19.
The big picture: Economists have theorized for a while about the impact of COVID deaths on the labor market. Now, research has started to emerge and key public figures like Powell are starting to talk about it explicitly.
  • "Close to a half a million who would have been working ... died from COVID," Powell said while talking about the U.S. labor shortage.
  • Go deeper: In a footnote to a speech he gave on Nov. 30, Powell estimates that 400,000 working-age Americans died in excess of what was anticipated pre-pandemic.
State of play: Compared to pre-pandemic projections, there are around 3.5 million people effectively missing from the American workforce, as Powell explained in that speech at the Brookings Institution.
  • This number includes older workers who left the labor force earlier than expected. "These excess retirements might now account for more than 2 million of the ... shortfall," he said.
  • The other 1.5 million comes from a decline in immigration and "a surge in deaths."
  • Overall, 1.09 million Americans lost their lives to COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins data.
💭 Our thought bubble: The role these deaths play in the economy often gets overlooked, possibly because it's so devastating to contemplate.
  • But when considering the state of the U.S. workplace, it's worth remembering that many Americans lost colleagues, friends and loved ones over the past few years. It's a toll that will take many years to understand and lifetimes to grieve.


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June Zaccone
National Jobs for All Network
http://www.njfac.org

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Friday, December 9, 2022

[NJFAC] Long Covid is distorting the labor market

Long Covid is distorting the labor market — and that's bad for the U.S. economy  Dec 8 2022 Greg Iacurci@GregIacurci


Key Points
  • Long Covid is affecting how Americans work. Some are unable to work at all due to symptoms of the chronic illness.
  • The overall labor impact of long Covid is tough to quantify. Estimates suggest hundreds of thousands to millions may be out of work, at a time when there are historic levels of job openings.
  • It is likely underpinning dynamics contributing to inflation. Meanwhile, lost earnings might translate to reduced household spending, or mean that patients must lean on public assistance programs funded by taxpayer dollars.....

    The midpoint of her estimate — 3 million workers — accounts for 1.8% of the entire U.S. civilian labor force. The figure may "sound unbelievably high" but is consistent with the impact in other major economies like the United Kingdom, Bach wrote in an August report. The figures are also likely conservative, since they exclude workers over age 65, she said.

    "Mild symptoms, employer accommodations or significant financial need can all keep people with long Covid employed," Bach said. "But in many cases, long Covid impacts work."....

June Zaccone
National Jobs for All Network
http://www.njfac.org

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[NJFAC] Persistent Inflation - and the Non-Partisan Fed--James Galbraith





Two days after the midterm elections in the United States, the Financial Times reported that US inflation has slowed, markets are "giddy," and the Federal Reserve may now ease up on its interest-rate hikes. The timing was strategic, given that the push from oil prices ended in June, and that overall price changes have been low since July. With the election over, it seems, now it is safe to admit the facts....

America's central bank is dominated by partisan Republicans from the business class – in financial circles, at the regional Federal Reserve Banks, and on the Federal Reserve Board, where Democratic presidents habitually reappoint Republican chairs – as Bill Clinton did with Alan Greenspan, Barack Obama with Ben Bernanke, and Joe Biden with Powell. Democrats who serve are habitually non-partisan – or hard-liners projecting an image. The result is that pressure for tight policies hits harder when Democrats are in power than when Republicans are.....
 
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June Zaccone
National Jobs for All Network
http://www.njfac.org

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